Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 50,187
2 South Dakota 44,922
3 Louisiana 39,537
4 Mississippi 38,896
5 Alabama 37,796
6 Iowa 37,145
7 Wisconsin 36,430
8 Florida 36,410
9 Tennessee 35,986
10 Arkansas 35,365
11 Georgia 34,309
12 Idaho 33,798
13 Nebraska 33,346
14 South Carolina 33,309
15 Utah 33,089
16 Arizona 32,861
17 Texas 31,610
18 Nevada 31,274
19 Illinois 30,389
20 Oklahoma 29,668
21 Rhode Island 29,285
22 Missouri 28,958
23 Kansas 27,622
24 Montana 26,740
25 New Jersey 26,060
26 New York 25,773
27 North Carolina 24,995
28 Delaware 24,819
29 Indiana 24,807
30 Minnesota 24,013
31 District of Columbia 23,821
32 Maryland 23,377
33 California 23,124
34 Kentucky 22,375
35 Massachusetts 22,020
36 Virginia 20,417
37 New Mexico 20,309
38 Wyoming 19,830
39 Puerto Rico 19,768
40 Alaska 19,569
41 Connecticut 19,100
42 Michigan 17,986
43 Ohio 17,129
44 Colorado 16,963
45 Pennsylvania 15,720
46 Washington 14,234
47 West Virginia 12,400
48 Hawaii 10,493
49 Oregon 10,065
50 New Hampshire 7,646
51 Maine 4,652
52 Vermont 3,338

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 1,006
2 South Dakota 956
3 Wisconsin 666
4 Montana 617
5 Alaska 569
6 Wyoming 536
7 Utah 468
8 Idaho 432
9 Tennessee 397
10 Illinois 393
11 New Mexico 384
12 Iowa 380
13 Nebraska 343
14 Indiana 339
15 Colorado 325
16 Minnesota 325
17 Missouri 318
18 Alabama 299
19 Oklahoma 298
20 Kentucky 292
21 Arkansas 286
22 Rhode Island 285
23 Kansas 268
24 Michigan 250
25 Nevada 247
26 Puerto Rico 224
27 Georgia 218
28 Mississippi 211
29 North Carolina 210
30 Ohio 207
31 Texas 205
32 Connecticut 191
33 South Carolina 191
34 Massachusetts 168
35 Delaware 164
36 New Jersey 159
37 Florida 158
38 West Virginia 154
39 Arizona 150
40 Pennsylvania 145
41 Maryland 118
42 Virginia 116
43 Washington 96
44 California 95
45 District of Columbia 95
46 Oregon 86
47 Louisiana 85
48 New York 83
49 New Hampshire 69
50 Hawaii 56
51 Maine 39
52 Vermont 35

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,834
2 New York 1,700
3 Massachusetts 1,433
4 Connecticut 1,287
5 Louisiana 1,259
6 Rhode Island 1,117
7 Mississippi 1,096
8 District of Columbia 909
9 Arizona 807
10 Illinois 774
11 Florida 765
12 Michigan 756
13 South Carolina 742
14 Georgia 719
15 Delaware 703
16 Pennsylvania 682
17 Maryland 678
18 Texas 623
19 Indiana 615
20 North Dakota 611
21 Arkansas 607
22 Alabama 584
23 Nevada 568
24 Iowa 525
25 Missouri 467
26 New Mexico 465
27 Tennessee 458
28 Ohio 446
29 California 440
30 Minnesota 426
31 South Dakota 423
32 Virginia 419
33 North Carolina 400
34 Colorado 391
35 New Hampshire 349
36 Kansas 335
37 Kentucky 331
38 Idaho 325
39 Washington 318
40 Oklahoma 316
41 Nebraska 314
42 Wisconsin 313
43 Montana 284
44 Puerto Rico 251
45 West Virginia 236
46 Utah 179
47 Oregon 155
48 Hawaii 149
49 Wyoming 133
50 Maine 108
51 Vermont 92
52 Alaska 87

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 North Dakota 9
2 South Dakota 7
3 Montana 6
4 Arkansas 5
5 Missouri 5
6 Wyoming 5
7 Tennessee 4
8 Delaware 2
9 Idaho 2
10 Illinois 2
11 Indiana 2
12 Iowa 2
13 Louisiana 2
14 Massachusetts 2
15 Michigan 2
16 Minnesota 2
17 Mississippi 2
18 Nebraska 2
19 New Mexico 2
20 Rhode Island 2
21 South Carolina 2
22 Texas 2
23 Wisconsin 2
24 Colorado 1
25 Connecticut 1
26 Florida 1
27 Georgia 1
28 Kentucky 1
29 Maryland 1
30 Nevada 1
31 North Carolina 1
32 Oklahoma 1
33 Pennsylvania 1
34 Puerto Rico 1
35 Virginia 1
36 Washington 1
37 Alabama 0
38 Alaska 0
39 Arizona 0
40 California 0
41 District of Columbia 0
42 Hawaii 0
43 Kansas 0
44 Maine 0
45 New Hampshire 0
46 New Jersey 0
47 New York 0
48 Ohio 0
49 Oregon 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 West Virginia 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Lincoln Arkansas 177,058 1 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 161,823 2 99
Trousdale Tennessee 157,391 3 99
Lafayette Florida 151,152 4 99
Lake Tennessee 140,678 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 48,548 278 91
Richland South Carolina 41,146 471 85
York South Carolina 23,532 1515 51
Orange California 19,077 1916 39
Pierce Washington 12,289 2490 20

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Jerauld South Dakota 5,961 1 99
Emporia city Virginia 5,238 2 99
Hancock Georgia 5,203 3 99
Kenedy Texas 4,950 4 99
Galax city Virginia 4,727 5 99
Richland South Carolina 649 841 73
Davidson Tennessee 494 1153 63
Orange California 456 1252 60
York South Carolina 367 1497 52
Pierce Washington 274 1799 42

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons